Observers believe that, with current developments, a number of factors may affect the strategy of Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration in the war in Ukraine.
As Russia's military campaign in Ukraine enters its second month, questions have arisen about the limits of what President Vladimir Putin's administration can accept, and what factors could cause Moscow to change. strategy in neighboring countries.
For many years, Russia has been preparing for the scenario of Western sanctions. These measures initially help them avoid the scenario of economic collapse in the face of overwhelming pressure from the US and its allies.
However, the Washington Post quoted experts as saying that Russia seems to be facing certain disadvantages on the battlefield and other limitations, factors that could hinder a long-term military campaign. in Ukraine.
Expert Tatiana Stanovaya, from the R. Politik think tank, said that as the war continues and sanctions on Russia increase, Moscow may begin to see an increasingly strong influence from the measures. isolation law.
Reality on the battlefield
On the battlefield, although Russia has gained control of a sizable swath of southern Ukraine, almost completing a "land corridor" from the Crimean peninsula, efforts to enter the two largest cities Ukraine is Kiev and Kharkov has yet to make significant progress. Sources from Ukraine and the West say that, in a month of operation, the Russian military side also seems to face significant losses.
Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA (USA), said that if Russia continues the war on many fronts in Ukraine for a long time, Moscow will need a large number of troops, which means that they will have to step up their troop mobilization efforts.
According to the Washington Post, in Ukraine, Russian forces are also facing difficulties in maintaining supply lines on many fronts.
Nick Reynolds, an expert from the Royal United Services Institute (UK), said that the Kremlin may face challenges related to a lack of weapons, manpower and logistics if the campaign continues to drag. long. He said that these challenges may cause Russia to change its initial military goals. For example, Russia may reduce the conditions with Ukraine at the negotiating table, or concentrate its forces on a single front, instead of spreading it out over many areas.
In addition, the increased Western arms transfers to Ukraine may also expose Russia to additional challenges, especially with modern weapons, such as the "suicide killer" drone Switchblade.
Economical factors
Russia up to this point has been essentially fending off Western sanctions by maintaining its oil and gas exports. With global fuel prices surging and the ruble depreciating moderately, the Putin administration will likely have enough cash to cover the Russian government's costs while also spending on economic stimulus.
However, economic "turbulence" is likely to increase for Russia as gross domestic product declines and unemployment rate rises, as well as the prospect of escalation on the battlefield that could lead to orders. new punishment.
For the time being, Moscow may have to depend on countries that have not yet issued sanctions against Russia, such as China, Turkey, and Israel. The fact that Russia can keep these markets will affect the Russian economy in the near future.
For years, Mr. Putin has steered Russia towards a stable and growing economy, but now sanctions are shaking this achievement. Experts warn that this could affect Russian public opinion as their quality of life suffers due to the economic downturn.
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