Russia's difficult position if it wants to control the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine

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 Russia has blockaded the Black Sea region of Ukraine, but to control the coastal areas of this region is a difficult problem, with a series of risks.


AFP quoted experts as saying that, although Russia can achieve an overwhelming position in the Black Sea region compared to Kiev's side, if it wants to control the entire coast of Ukraine, this could be a dangerous option. dangerous.


According to British intelligence, Russia currently operates 20 warships in the Black Sea and they blockade this area thanks to the large number of ships. Turkey has banned warships from all sides from entering the Black Sea through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, leading to the need for Russia to preserve its forces there because they cannot send more ships into the area. this.


Theoretically, Russia now has complete control of the Sea of ​​Azov and they are aiming to control the Black Sea coast of Ukraine according to the goal they set out in the second phase of the military operation. However, the sinking of the battleship Moskva last month in the Black Sea seems to have put Russia at certain risk.


Russia said a fire blew up the armory on the flagship causing it to sink, while Ukraine claimed to have fired Neptune missiles at the ship.


Whatever the cause, Russia's loss of Moscow seems likely to have some influence on Russia's future plans for the Odessa region on the Black Sea coast.


According to experts, Russia will now have to rethink the option of landing troops from warships near Odessa because of concerns about Ukraine's missiles, as well as anti-ship firepower that the West is about to aid in Kiev.


"This area contains a threat that Russia needs to consider," said Igor Delanoe, a defense expert at the French-Russian Monitor organization.


He suggested that the progress of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine could give Moscow new approaches to Odessa, but stressed that Russia would need to neutralize Ukraine's coast guard first.


Expert Michael Petersen, from the US Naval War College, said Russian forces appear to have had some difficulty locating and disabling Ukraine's mobile surface-to-air missiles due to the mobility of the Russian forces. these weapons. Mr. Petersen suggested that Moscow could face a similar obstacle with Ukraine's movable coastal defense shields.


This, he said, could help Ukraine pose a threat to Russia's supply lines between Kherson (an area that Moscow already controls) and Nikolayev, an area close to Odessa.


In addition, Ukraine is also deploying and is about to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles capable of spying on Russian weapons systems in the region as well as disabling ships. On May 2, Ukraine announced that it had sunk two Russian patrol boats in the Black Sea with a TB2 drone, marking a new threat to Russian ships present in the region.

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