US officials and experts say that Russia has a way to deal with the G7's price ceiling on Moscow's crude oil.
Reuters cited US government sources and observers as saying that Russia has enough access to transport most of its oil that it can bypass the G7 price ceiling. This comment shows the fact that the "weapons" of the West aimed at Moscow's main products still have many limitations.
The world's top seven major industries agreed last month to impose a ceiling on Russian crude oil prices from December 5, amid concerns that the move could cripple global trade.
The goal of the G7 is to buy Russian oil only at a fixed price, in the hope that it can make Russia reduce its crude oil revenue to underfund the war in Ukraine, but still ensure Moscow profits at a low level. to continue producing oil.
The US spent many months talking with insurance, transportation and trading companies to convince them to implement the ceiling on Russian oil prices. Now, however, both sides realize that Russia can completely neutralize this measure with its own fleet and auxiliary services.
According to a US Treasury official, about 80-90% of Russian oil is expected to still circulate normally, outside the G7 price limit.
Russia has announced that it will stop supplying energy to parties that apply non-market measures to their goods.
The imposition of a price ceiling can create financial and technical difficulties for Russia, but also has the risk of reducing the global crude oil supply by 1-2% in the context of rising inflation and the crisis. happening in many countries.
US officials also learned that some oil tankers will change the country of registration, taking commercial companies outside the G7 to bypass the measure of price ceilings.
Russia will incur additional costs for further transport shipments, as well as insurance and financing fees. This led the United States to believe that Russia would eventually have to accept to sell oil at a ceiling price.
However, the challenge of the West is huge in convincing Russia's two big customers, India and China. The two countries have bought oil from Russia at a steep price drop in recent months and have not supported Moscow's measure of oil price ceilings.
The US said that the price ceiling will make China and India continue to buy cheap Russian oil.
Transport expert Andrea Olivi said that, in theory, Russia still has access to enough ships so that Russian oil can still circulate after December 5. These vessels can be self-insured or insured by Russian company P&I.
JP Morgan believes that the impact of the price ceiling is limited, and Russia can be almost completely ignored by using ships of India, China and Moscow's own to transport oil. Russia's oil exports will only decrease slightly after the G7 imposes a ceiling on this commodity.
On the other hand, experts warn, imposing a ceiling on Russian oil prices may cause the West to suffer the opposite effect when energy prices are at risk of skyrocketing after the above measure is implemented.
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